PDF Download Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Now existing! A publication that will certainly give terrific influences for you! A book has large amounts with the everyday problem around. This publication is a publication that has actually been developed by an experienced author. For the result, the writer truly has terrific cause bring in the viewers. It triggers the title of this publication is also so fascinating. Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets (Incerto), By Nassim Nicholas Taleb is this publication title.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
PDF Download Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Do you understand just what the advantages of analysis are? Before going over regarding Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets (Incerto), By Nassim Nicholas Taleb, we will certainly ask you initially. What do you get after reviewing? Just what do you get after ending up checking out a book? What's your feel? Well, many concerns we will certainly utter to you, the amazing publication enthusiast, as well as visitors. We expect you to be incredible because in this modern-day age, lots of people choose to chat with various other to reading. This is why, the factors of exactly how guides need to be cultured are very important.
Publication; however in the past time becomes a sacral thing to have by everybody. Lots of books from thin to the really thick web pages are presented. And now, for the technology has actually established innovative, we will serve you the book not in the printed ways. Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets (Incerto), By Nassim Nicholas Taleb is among the products of those publications. This publication model can be downloaded from the site web link that we provide in this site. We offer you not only the best books from this nation, yet many from outsides.
The simple language to comprehend, the choice of the words, as well as how the author describes the definition as well as lesson of this book can be stimulated quickly. It suggests that any kind of people from every states and also levels could recognize exactly what this publication will certainly thrill. Outstanding and also understanding are 2 kinds of joined means to learn about a publication. When this Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets (Incerto), By Nassim Nicholas Taleb exists and supplied in the general public, many individuals are directly attempting to get this publication as their very own reading material.
If you have chosen to obtain this book as the reading source, currently you can invest you couple of time to check out the web page and obtain guides. After analysis, you will absolutely recognize why the factors we share it as one of the suggested exceptional books in this globe. Now, allow's do more and make real of Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets (Incerto), By Nassim Nicholas Taleb to acquire.
Review
"[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play “We need a book like this . . . fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
Read more
About the Author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand. Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.From the Hardcover edition.
Read more
See all Editorial Reviews
Product details
Series: Incerto
Paperback: 368 pages
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks; Updated edition (August 23, 2005)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 158799190X
ISBN-13: 978-1587991905
ASIN: 0812975219
Product Dimensions:
5.2 x 0.8 x 8 inches
Shipping Weight: 9.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.2 out of 5 stars
732 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#13,833 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. In multiple ways. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to weave a fantastically engaging and entertaining book out of what could very easily be a dry and technical topic is just icing in the cake.I've read all four of Taleb's books and Fooled By Randomness still stands out as my favorite. Although Black Swan is still the most popular, and most controversial, Fooled in many ways is the most practical, as it's the most general and therefore most widely applicable. Everyone should deeply understand the survivorship and hindsight biases, as well as the difference between conditional and unconditional probability.That being said, it's often hard to determine whether the heart of the book is the ideas (which to someone such as myself who has only a Stats 101 background in probability are almost always revelation-inducing) or the author. I can't stress how much I learned from this book that has nothing to do with probability or statistics, just random asides from an erudite and meandering mind. Regardless of your background (or even your interest in probability) you will probable learn some fascinating and/or useful tidbit from Fooled, and probably a whole lot more.
Bad news. You are a fool about to be fooled. Again. And again. Just like everybody else. We are a species of fools. What a circus! But Taleb is a special kind of fool, foolish enough to write an essay on how randomness fools us. Interesting fool, nay? The whole thing feels like a foolish attempt to make us better fools. Even his methodology writing this book is foolish. Speaking his mind and having fun. Fool, fOOl, FOOL! Outrageous even for a brave fool. If you don't take yourself too seriously (say a foolish fool), this book is damn entertaining. Otherwise, this book is very insulting for serious fools. Seems that our carbon-based machinery fails us dealing with the abstract tools (say probability theory) we have been developing to understand nature (say since Pythagoras; just to finish with a foolish guess). Enjoy, you fool.
I know many I think might profit from reading this book. I know few who'd be likely to agree with my assessment, especially after they had read it. With that in mind, how many stars does it deserve? I like it better than the Black Swan.The author has thought deeply about risk and uncertainty. Before reading this I thought I had too. No longer. Perhaps reading this while young would produce a more positive asessment of its value but in one's later years it is more depressing than enlightening. Yes, most of us are fools so what's new in that? Will any readers be made less foolish by reading this? That is really the question.
I really like Nassim's rebel disposition and skepticism when it comes to science. I do, like many people, lean on science to get me closer to the truth. Sometimes too much. Nassim challenges this position based on his experience as a trader and what he's observed over the course of his life. He demonstrates how theories may simply be the theorizer being fooled by random events. That is, the common problem of correlation being mistaken for causation. He's certainly changed my mindset to be more skeptical of elaborate theorizing and to look at the world with more of a bottom-up approach. That is, if something works, knowing the theory of why, doesn't make it necessarily any more valid.
Taleb is of course famous for avoiding bull or bear trend naked bets and protecting himself for black swan events like big bank crashes. His revision of this book was needed but is long read for non-academics.Somewhat personal lifestyle story but serious warnings like those of George E P Box that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." But Taleb adds that modern derivatives and options that lose most of the time but win big infrequently are a great strategy for those with means and patience while crashes wipe out the rest of the naked speculators big time. Enjoyed the ideas and stories. Academics will appreciate the well selected references and explanations of why only are a few have "useful models" in the big human-centric gambling casino that is Wall Street. Economics in general is a fuzzy world to model compared to more deterministic factory machines. So don't stop using statistical methods in that latter world. But protect yourself from human factors in the financial world..
I can tolerate the ego-maniacal writing style, but I cannot abide the enormous errors the author commits when he delves into science.To wit: Taleb posits that Einstein proved Newton wrong. Not true. Einstein showed that Newtonian mechanics failed at the extremes - extremely large (cosmologic) and extremely small (atomic distances). Further, he posits that the poor schlep scientist's odds of success continue to increase as he does more mouse experiments. Untrue if the hypothesis under which the scientist is proceeding is ultimately incorrect. And finally, the author accepts global warming as a given and castigates science for not having recognized the truth of it from random weather events. Taleb, stick your knitting. It's one thing to be ignorant, but another to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb EPub
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Doc
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb iBooks
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb rtf
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Mobipocket
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kindle
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar